Current EA changes that affect this page
Hotfix 0.4.1 reduced attacks and shifted targeting toward more valuable carts. Update 0.4.5 rebalanced ambushes again to make them less frequent and more predictable. The patch fixes escorts expiring immediately after their first fight. A separate voice line announces ordinary escort expiry. The hotfix corrects the ambush interface offering a fight against robbers when the caravan has no escort. Availability of the choice should be checked against the actual escort state. Denounce during a robber attack now correctly applies Vigilant Driver. The notes say this allows cart use within the same turn without another attack.
Compare the actual destinations
Inspect both the marketplace and any available resource site. The goods diary describes a trade-off between material cost and a longer route. In cities with multiple marketplaces, compare the destination available to your own workshop rather than following one fixed route from a guide.
Reserve the next job
Write down which business needs the cart after delivery. This is especially useful when a family master can use shared carts. A route notebook helps expose conflicting plans without claiming to simulate the game’s pathfinding.
Separate risk from probability
The official material discusses escorting valuable cargo and being outside the city walls. It provides no current numerical robbery chance. Treat integrity, cargo value and route exposure as inspection prompts; never convert them into an invented percentage.